Working with Liverpool City Council's Children's Social Services and associated Data Teams, we planned a research project based upon the huge, unified dataset we created for them in their Sentinel Data Platform. The objective of the project was to apply the latest Microsoft AI Machine Learning technologies to gain an understanding and risk measure of the degree of vulnerability for a person becoming a future Domestic Abuse (DA) victim or perpetrator.
We had already been brought in to help Liverpool manage the city’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic by creating an index of vulnerable residents based on 45 data feeds. Information on domestic abuse arrests, interventions and callouts is regularly captured from Merseyside Police and Liverpool City Council, which is used to identify complex families as one of the six pillars of the Troubled/Supporting Families Programme. Domestic violence is a presenting factor in 25% of identified Troubled Families. Children living in a home where domestic abuse occurs can have a significant impact on a young person's mental health, physical wellbeing and behavior which can last into adulthood.
Liverpool's Data Platform was already receiving and integrating data from 72 data sources, including all core council systems, and all strategic partner agencies they work with to support children and young families. The Platform provided a Single View of all people across the city, and this information could be rolled up into family compositions to show a Single View of each family.
With Liverpool’s Corporate Intelligence Team we conducted a unique project to identify contributory factors and understand why persons become domestic abuse perpetrators based on historic and current data held within the Liverpool Families Programme data system. The key objectives were to:
- Identify trigger reasons for an individual becoming a perpetrator of domestic abuse using scholarly literature and the judgement of professionals. These could include identifying historic household abuse (identifying if this was prevalent when a current perpetrator was a child), adverse childhood experiences (ACE’s), previous neglect, school performance, substance misuse and mental health amongst others.
- Score the trigger reasons and overlay these over cohorts of individuals to understand if there are standout environmental or learnt behaviours that are prevalent in domestic abuse perpetrators.
- Develop data timelines. We worked with Liverpool’s Corporate Intelligence (LCIT) Team to develop a new test system with multiple dashboard screens to identify trend data and model this using test scores. LCIT anticipated that there could be as many as 6 or 7 models created as part of the pilot to identify individuals who may have indicators or patterns in the data that suggest they could be vulnerable to becoming domestic abuse perpetrators.
- Envisage that the modelled data and risk factors gathered during the pilot will form part of Early Help assessments to ensure that families—which are displaying typical environmental behaviours which could lead to future violence—are addressed by professional services.
- Use data from the pilot strategically as part of the Demand Management process to identify ‘hotspot’ areas of potential future domestic abuse offenders in the city. Based upon this understanding, larger scale interventions could be implemented (e.g., in a school setting to educate young people on the risks associated with domestic abuse).
- Learn from the pilot study to develop further risk management tools for families in the Sentinel system to better understand risk-based problems in other aspects of complex families (e.g., child exploitation).
The data was analysed to show all current and historic issues, needs, and dependencies. The analyses from this exercise could then be used to target Family Support Services and Early Help. For the key source system, historic data was also incorporated into the Platform, providing approximately 10-12 years history of incidents, events, and outcomes.
It is in this scenario where the Data Platform excels. Analyses, insights, modelling and predictions are only as good as the data. In terms of AI Machine Learning technologies, the broader, richer and deeper the information fed in, the better and more accurate the analyses. The Data Platform allowed Liverpool to pool vast amounts of complex and valuable information so that Machine Learning processes can effectively identify those at risk of becoming a future Domestic Abuse (DA) victim or perpetrator.
From December 2021 to May 2022, we worked with the Liverpool teams to agree a baseline set of background issues and trigger points that current DA victims and perpetrators have in common, listed by degrees of commonality. We then used this baseline to apply Machine Learning modelling and build up confidence models of how much weighting the different baseline factors had, and where other previously un-recognised background factors also had notably high frequencies. This modelling was then applied so a subset of the wider population to show how young people with a higher potentially vulnerability could be identified.
The objective was to show how Liverpool's unified data asset could be used to drive an early intervention strategy and support vulnerable people before they reach a point of crisis. We produced a Empowering MDM With Efficient Data Matching in the Cloud White Paper with the Liverpool teams that would be used as the basis for a business case across the council and key partners to obtain funding for a full implementation of this technology to drive proactive support services. The White Paper showed evidence of the research results, including an analysis of confidence ratings for all factors considered, and described how this approach and technology can be applied to many other scenarios such as future vulnerability of being a Looked After Child.